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WEEKLY PORTFOLIO BRIEFING
DRY RUN
March 12, 2026
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Weekly Briefing
Powered by Claude • Investigated 8 flags
Your portfolio sits at $541K with margin at 14.0% of NAV — manageable but worth monitoring as it approaches the 15% threshold. Markets were modestly negative this week with SPY down 0.7% and VIX elevated at 24.2, driven by geopolitical tensions (U.S.-Iran) and rotation out of financials (XLF -3.1%) and real estate (XLRE -2.1%). Your Semiconductors/AI sector held up well with XLK flat, though TSM took a 6% hit on the geopolitical risk-off that's since stabilized.
The TSM flag triggered a cost basis recovery review at +86.4%, but deep research strongly supports holding through Q1 earnings on April 16. TSMC reported 30% YoY revenue growth in Jan-Feb 2026, has DA Davidson and Barclays both targeting $450, and the recent 10% pullback from all-time highs was geopolitical noise — not fundamental. At 2.8% weight, this is well under the 6% cap, so there's no mechanical pressure to act. The research override saves you from selling into weakness ahead of what should be a strong earnings catalyst. Similarly, your sub-scale positions (CFR, OKE, XEL, VZ) all came back with INTACT theses and NONE sell signals — these are build candidates, not problems.
Key items to watch: MU reports March 18 (6 days) — your largest position at 6.2% is right at the position cap and HOLD_PROTECTED, so no action needed but monitor the print closely. AGX reports March 26 — at +276% return and 1.7% weight, this remains your highest-returning position and earnings could be volatile. MIST reports today (March 12) — a dust-sized position, so no action regardless. Your portfolio has meaningful sector gaps in International/Europe, Emerging Markets, and Consumer Discretionary. You already have small positions in NVO, IBN, and TJX (all HOLD_PROTECTED), but the European gap remains completely unfilled. The research strongly favors DTEGY (Deutsche Telekom) and BABA as the top gap-fill candidates when capital arrives.
One additional observation: your BDC/CLO sleeve (MAIN, CSWC, ABR, OWL, LADR) totals 7.1% of NAV with a blended return of -18.1% and an average efficiency score of 25. ABR at -37.4% and OWL at -44.0% are the weakest links — both are CLEAR for hold period purposes. While the default is hold and these are income positions providing dividend support, OWL's 44% loss and efficiency score of 17 warrants a thesis review when you have bandwidth. Also note that your MU position at 6.2% technically breaches the 6% position cap, but it's HOLD_PROTECTED (8 days old) with earnings in 6 days — this is untouchable for now and will be reviewed post-earnings.
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🛡 Research Holds (1 positions protected)
TSM
+86.4%
— INTACT/WEAK
(was: Sell 23 shares at ~$347.09 to recover $8,135 cost basis)
HOLD — Research override. Thesis INTACT, sell signal WEAK. Cost basis recovery available but not recommended at this time.
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Recommended Actions
8 recommendations
HIGH
HOLD
TSM
RESEARCHED
HOLD OVERRIDE
RESEARCH HOLD — do not trim ahead of Q1 earnings April 16; thesis fully intact
TSM at 2.8% is well under the 6% cap. DA Davidson and Barclays both target $450, Jan-Feb revenue grew 30% YoY, and the 10% pullback was geopolitical noise. Trimming into weakness ahead of a likely strong Q1 beat (guided +38% YoY revenue) leaves money on the table. Revisit for cost basis recovery after earnings if price approaches $370-390.
Timing: Revisit after April 16 earnings
No action. Hold all 43.7 shares. If post-earnings price reaches $375+, consider recovering $8,135 cost basis (~22 shares) and holding remainder as house money.
MEDIUM
BUILD
CFR
RESEARCHED
Build CFR to 1.5% weight (~$3K add) on next deposit — quality Texas bank at attractive valuation
Q4 2025 EPS beat by $0.09, full-year earnings grew 11.5%, new $300M buyback authorized, and branch expansion guided to add $0.35-$0.45 EPS in 2026. Trading at 13.5x PE with 3.0% yield, pulled back 10% from highs. KBW and Loop Capital target $160, providing 19% upside. Sell signal is NONE.
Timing: When next deposit arrives (~13 days)
Add ~22 shares (~$3,000) to bring position from $5,110 (0.9%) to ~$8,100 (1.5%). Ex-div dates quarterly — next likely June.
HIGH
FILL
DTEGY
Open DTEGY position (~$8K) for International/Europe sector gap — unanimous Strong Buy, 16.7x PE
Portfolio has zero European exposure against a 3-10% target. Deutsche Telekom has unanimous Strong Buy from 18 analysts, 3.0% dividend yield, majority ownership of T-Mobile US provides US growth engine, and Morningstar rates it 4 stars (undervalued) at €38 fair value. Starlink partnership for 10 European markets adds structural growth catalyst. At $37.75, it trades mid-range of its 52-week band.
Timing: When next deposit arrives or April bonus — prioritize over other gap fills
Open position of ~210 shares (~$8,000, 1.5% weight) at market. Fills European gap and adds telecom diversification with income component.
MEDIUM
FILL
BABA
Open BABA position (~$7K) for Emerging Markets gap — deep value Chinese tech at 18.6x PE with AI/cloud growth
Portfolio has zero dedicated EM exposure against a 2-5% target. BABA trades at 18.6x PE (32% below 10-year median of 27x), cloud revenue growing 34% YoY, FY2025 earnings up 62%, and Strong Buy consensus with ~40% analyst upside to $189 target. Low beta (0.43) suits limited trading windows. Provides genuine geographic diversification from US tech concentration.
Timing: April bonus window — larger position size makes this a better fit for bonus capital
Open position of ~52 shares (~$7,000, 1.3% weight). Consider building to 1.5% if price stays below $140.
MEDIUM
BUILD
XEL
RESEARCHED
Build XEL to 1.5% with modest add — data center utility with 21 years of guidance beats
UBS upgraded to Buy with $89 target, BTIG has Strong Buy at $94, and Citi raised target to $92. Data center pipeline doubled to 6 GW target by 2027 with the Google Pine Island announcement. 23 consecutive dividend increases, 9% guided EPS growth through 2030. At $82 near 52-week highs, the entry isn't ideal, so keep the add modest.
Timing: This week — ex-dividend March 13 captures $0.5925/share
Add ~20 shares (~$1,650) to bring from $6,414 (1.2%) to ~$8,064 (1.5%). Buy before March 13 ex-div to capture dividend on new shares.
LOW
HOLD
OKE
RESEARCHED
Hold OKE at current size — intact thesis but limited near-term upside to justify prioritizing capital here
Thesis is intact with 4.9% yield, fee-based earnings model, and organic project ramp in 2H 2026. However, 2026 EBITDA guidance is flat YoY, analyst consensus is split (7 Buy, 10 Hold), average target of $87-89 is only 2-4% above current price, and JPMorgan downgraded to Neutral. Capital is better deployed to DTEGY or BABA where upside conviction is higher. Revisit if price pulls back toward $80.
Timing: No action needed
Maintain 75.2 shares at 1.2% weight. Monitor Q1 earnings May 4 for organic project progress. If hyperscaler gas deals materialize, upgrade to BUILD.
MEDIUM
REVIEW
OWL
Thesis review needed on OWL — down 44% with efficiency score of 17, weakest position in portfolio
OWL has the deepest loss (-44.0%) and lowest efficiency score (17) in the portfolio. At $5,708 and 1.1% weight, it's consuming capital that could be redeployed. The BDC/CLO sleeve overall is underperforming with ABR (-37.4%) also struggling. Before any action, need to assess whether Blue Owl's thesis (alternative credit manager with permanent capital) is intact or whether fundraising headwinds and fee pressure have structurally impaired the story.
Timing: Research before next report cycle
Flag for deep research next week. If thesis is weakening, exit proceeds (~$5,700) would fund half the DTEGY position. If intact, hold — do not exit purely on loss.
LOW
MONITOR
Batch sub-scale review: ITRG ($727), MIST ($926), IOT ($2,531), RIO ($4,652) — hold and monitor
ITRG and MIST are dust positions (<$1K each) that aren't worth individual action — batch exit only if thesis breaks. IOT at $2,531 is a speculative IoT play down 15.7% — needs to prove itself before adding. RIO at $4,652 is a speculative growth name down 0.9% with low efficiency (24). None of these positions are consuming meaningful capital or creating drag. The 51-position count is fine — forced consolidation destroys optionality.
Timing: ITRG reports March 24, MIST reports today — watch for thesis signals
No action on any. If MIST or ITRG earnings reveal broken thesis, batch exit both (~$1,650 combined) and redirect to sub-scale builds.
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Capital Flow (from trims/exits)
No trims this week — capital flow neutral.
When next deposit arrives (~$7.5K/mo, discretionary):
Continue building CFR ($5,715 remaining to 2%) → Open DTE / DTEGY for International/Europe ($8,000) → Open BABA for Emerging Markets ($7,000) → Open TJX for Consumer Discretionary ($5,954)
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Portfolio Snapshot
$541,247.80
First report -- weekly trend will populate from next week
| Margin |
-$75,922.75
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Unrealized P&L |
$71,365.70
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| Positions |
51
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Dividends YTD |
$0.00 |
| Daily Margin Cost |
$10.69/day |
Deposits YTD |
$0.00 |
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| Avg Efficiency |
48.8
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Avg Growth |
40.0
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| Median Efficiency |
49.5 |
Avg Income |
48.0
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Sector Allocation
| Sector |
Current |
Target |
Status |
| Semiconductors/AI HIGH (7) |
23.6% |
≤38% |
MONITOR |
| Energy/Midstream (6) |
13.8% |
≤15% |
MONITOR |
| REITs (6) |
11.1% |
≤15% |
OK |
| Financials (5) |
8.1% |
≤10% |
MONITOR |
| AI Infrastructure HIGH (2) |
8.0% |
≤18% |
OK |
| BDCs/CLOs (5) |
7.0% |
≤12% |
OK |
| Healthcare (3) |
6.2% |
≤12% |
OK |
| Tobacco/Consumer (3) |
5.9% |
≤8% |
OK |
| Income ETFs (3) |
4.7% |
≤8% |
OK |
| Growth/Speculative (6) |
4.7% |
≤8% |
OK |
| Media/Telecom (2) |
3.1% |
≤8% |
OK |
| Utilities (2) |
2.9% |
≤6% |
OK |
| Consumer Discretionary (1) |
0.9% |
≤8% |
UNDER |
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Research: TJX ($158, Strong Buy) | LOW ($246, Buy) | HD ($350, Strong Buy) |
| International/Europe (0) |
0.0% |
≤15% |
MISSING |
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Research: DTE (ETR) / DTEGY (OTC) ($33, Strong Buy) | NVO (NYSE) ($39, Hold) | RHM (ETR) / RNMBY (OTC) ($1653, Strong Buy) |
| Emerging Markets (0) |
0.0% |
≤8% |
MISSING |
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Research: BABA ($135, Strong Buy) | NU ($15, Buy) | IBN ($31, Strong Buy) |
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Full Portfolio Data
Reference material — 51 positions
| Symbol |
Eff |
G |
I |
Return |
Value |
Wt% |
| AGX |
86.9 |
96.0 |
36.5 |
+275.9% |
$9,404.33 |
1.7 |
| NVDA |
82.9 |
78.7 |
22.9 |
+111.2% |
$10,456.06 |
1.9 |
| SPG |
82.4 |
59.8 |
74.2 |
+77.0% |
$9,615.14 |
1.8 |
| PM |
81.6 |
59.4 |
72.8 |
+74.8% |
$9,157.65 |
1.7 |
| TSM |
80.2 |
73.8 |
34.1 |
+86.4% |
$15,166.72 |
2.8 |
| TFC |
77.5 |
60.3 |
62.5 |
+57.9% |
$8,822.86 |
1.6 |
| MU |
74.7 |
69.9 |
10.5 |
+67.9% |
$33,579.91 |
6.2 |
| XEL |
74.0 |
54.9 |
62.1 |
+54.1% |
$6,413.77 |
1.2 |
| TTE |
73.4 |
52.1 |
72.8 |
+41.6% |
$10,490.48 |
1.9 |
| JNJ |
73.0 |
58.8 |
48.0 |
+51.2% |
$14,850.93 |
2.7 |
| NEE |
72.8 |
52.9 |
64.5 |
+45.2% |
$9,037.16 |
1.7 |
| PBR |
71.1 |
50.3 |
79.1 |
+34.2% |
$15,232.88 |
2.8 |
| MO |
70.9 |
50.1 |
79.8 |
+33.5% |
$8,608.09 |
1.6 |
| ENB |
69.4 |
50.6 |
68.7 |
+35.3% |
$21,970.07 |
4.1 |
| CFR |
69.4 |
56.1 |
52.2 |
+39.8% |
$5,109.82 |
0.9 |
| UEC |
68.4 |
52.6 |
20.0 |
+44.0% |
$11,529.56 |
2.1 |
| VZ |
67.0 |
46.9 |
74.7 |
+27.8% |
$8,049.25 |
1.5 |
| POWL |
65.2 |
62.9 |
30.5 |
+36.7% |
$7,312.05 |
1.4 |
| AVGO |
62.2 |
60.7 |
18.6 |
+30.3% |
$15,686.36 |
2.9 |
| LYB |
61.1 |
37.3 |
78.5 |
+14.8% |
$14,213.19 |
2.6 |
| O |
60.0 |
38.4 |
69.9 |
+16.3% |
$25,004.52 |
4.6 |
| PDI |
55.7 |
29.6 |
100.0 |
+4.6% |
$8,480.02 |
1.6 |
| OKE |
54.3 |
37.1 |
33.0 |
+14.5% |
$6,365.17 |
1.2 |
| TXN |
52.6 |
43.6 |
43.6 |
+7.2% |
$10,883.34 |
2.0 |
| VRT ★ |
50.3 |
45.1 |
4.0 |
+9.2% |
$27,006.00 |
5.0 |
| CEG ★ |
49.5 |
44.1 |
4.0 |
+7.8% |
$16,177.80 |
3.0 |
| NVO |
48.7 |
35.5 |
10.0 |
+6.4% |
$10,299.52 |
1.9 |
| AMD |
48.6 |
42.9 |
4.0 |
+6.3% |
$20,323.00 |
3.8 |
| JEPQ |
43.6 |
27.5 |
99.9 |
+1.9% |
$8,785.82 |
1.6 |
| VICI |
41.8 |
29.1 |
20.0 |
+4.0% |
$5,198.78 |
1.0 |
| JEPI |
34.1 |
26.0 |
82.1 |
+0.0% |
$8,095.19 |
1.5 |
| PFE |
32.1 |
29.7 |
66.1 |
-1.3% |
$8,519.25 |
1.6 |
| MAIN |
31.1 |
23.1 |
77.5 |
-4.7% |
$11,745.73 |
2.2 |
| PAX |
30.5 |
29.5 |
59.9 |
-1.7% |
$8,273.58 |
1.5 |
| CSWC |
30.3 |
19.3 |
100.0 |
-10.6% |
$8,011.91 |
1.5 |
| DOC |
29.9 |
20.0 |
85.6 |
-9.4% |
$4,835.94 |
0.9 |
| TJX |
28.0 |
31.2 |
10.0 |
+0.9% |
$4,945.43 |
0.9 |
| LADR |
27.3 |
16.3 |
93.8 |
-15.4% |
$5,043.35 |
0.9 |
| CMCSA |
24.5 |
17.7 |
65.1 |
-13.1% |
$8,521.91 |
1.6 |
| ARE |
24.5 |
9.3 |
81.0 |
-26.3% |
$7,617.38 |
1.4 |
| RIO |
23.5 |
37.4 |
4.0 |
-0.9% |
$4,651.64 |
0.9 |
| ARIS |
23.3 |
23.5 |
20.0 |
-4.0% |
$9,122.44 |
1.7 |
| ANET |
22.8 |
34.8 |
4.0 |
-5.1% |
$21,834.47 |
4.0 |
| REXR |
22.8 |
16.6 |
61.9 |
-14.9% |
$7,879.45 |
1.5 |
| ABR |
22.4 |
5.0 |
90.7 |
-37.4% |
$7,606.18 |
1.4 |
| IBN |
21.8 |
27.4 |
10.0 |
-4.9% |
$4,600.20 |
0.8 |
| MIST |
19.2 |
32.8 |
4.0 |
-8.2% |
$925.60 |
0.2 |
| ITRG |
18.7 |
32.1 |
4.0 |
-9.3% |
$726.56 |
0.1 |
| COIN ★ |
18.1 |
20.4 |
10.0 |
-15.9% |
$16,822.76 |
3.1 |
| OWL |
17.2 |
4.0 |
61.1 |
-44.0% |
$5,707.98 |
1.1 |
| IOT |
16.4 |
28.1 |
4.0 |
-15.7% |
$2,530.58 |
0.5 |
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Dividend Summary
| Annual Run Rate |
$17,113.98 |
Monthly Projected |
$1,426.17/mo |
| YTD Gross |
$4,349.47 |
YTD Net |
$3,131.86 |
Bali Basics — $1,426/$2,000/mo (71.3%)
Comfortable Anywhere — $1,426/$5,000/mo (28.5%)
Work Optional — $1,426/$10,000/mo (14.3%)
Full Independence — $1,426/$15,000/mo (9.5%)
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Sub-scale Positions (19)
$103,531.04 trapped below 1.5% threshold
| Symbol |
Value |
Wt% |
Eff |
| ITRG |
$726.56 |
0.1 |
18.7 |
| MIST |
$925.60 |
0.2 |
19.2 |
| IOT |
$2,530.58 |
0.5 |
16.4 |
| IBN |
$4,600.20 |
0.8 |
21.8 |
| RIO |
$4,651.64 |
0.9 |
23.5 |
| DOC |
$4,835.94 |
0.9 |
29.9 |
| TJX |
$4,945.43 |
0.9 |
28.0 |
| LADR |
$5,043.35 |
0.9 |
27.3 |
| CFR |
$5,109.82 |
0.9 |
69.4 |
| VICI |
$5,198.78 |
1.0 |
41.8 |
| OWL |
$5,707.98 |
1.1 |
17.2 |
| OKE |
$6,365.17 |
1.2 |
54.3 |
| XEL |
$6,413.77 |
1.2 |
74.0 |
| POWL |
$7,312.05 |
1.4 |
65.2 |
| ABR |
$7,606.18 |
1.4 |
22.4 |
| ARE |
$7,617.38 |
1.4 |
24.5 |
| REXR |
$7,879.45 |
1.5 |
22.8 |
| CSWC |
$8,011.91 |
1.5 |
30.3 |
| VZ |
$8,049.25 |
1.5 |
67.0 |
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Deep Research Log (6 stocks)
CFR
INTACT
SELL: NONE
$133.96
Cullen/Frost's organic growth thesis in high-growth Texas markets is executing well, with 11.5% earnings growth in 2025, consistent loan growth of 6.5% YoY, and expansion branches now turning accretive. The company's fortress balance sheet (CET1 14.06%, D/E 0.05) and disciplined organic strategy differentiate it from M&A-reliant peers. Credit quality remains solid with net charge-offs declining, and the $300M buyback adds a shareholder return catalyst for 2026.
Analyst: Cantor Fitzgerald: PT raised $141 to $152 (Neutral) -- Mar 3, 2026 + 8 more
Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (49 days)
OKE
INTACT
SELL: NONE
$85.81
ONEOK's core midstream toll-booth thesis remains intact with 90% fee-based earnings, 60,000 miles of integrated pipeline, 12 consecutive years of EBITDA growth, and a well-covered 4.9% dividend yield. The 2026 EBITDA guidance is roughly flat YoY which disappointed some, but this reflects conservative commodity assumptions and Bakken contract roll-offs, while multiple organic projects (Shadowfax, Delaware Basin expansions, Denver pipeline, Medford fractionator) ramp through 2H 2026 and into 2027. The acquisition integration story (Magellan, EnLink, Medallion) is materially complete with $500M in synergies realized, exceeding original targets.
Analyst: J.P. Morgan: Hold reiterated (target $83) -- Mar 3, 2026 + 8 more
Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (53 days)
XEL
INTACT
SELL: NONE
$82.52
The regulated utility thesis is fully intact and arguably strengthening. Xcel has delivered on its 21st consecutive year of meeting earnings guidance, data center demand is accelerating faster than expected (pipeline doubled to 6 GW target by 2027), and the $60B five-year capex plan drives 11% rate base CAGR with clear regulatory recovery mechanisms. The key risks — wildfire litigation (Marshall largely settled, Smokehouse Creek manageable at 20 GW total pipeline, and UBS argues the stock still prices in only ~7% EPS growth vs the company's 9% target — suggesting meaningful re-rating potential. Strategic partnerships with NextEra and GE Vernova de-risk execution, while 23 consecutive years of dividend growth and the lowest customer bills in the industry provide durable compounding.
Analyst: UBS: Upgrade Neutral to Buy (target $81 to $89) -- Feb 13, 2026 + 9 more
Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (42 days)
POWL
INTACT
SELL: WEAK
$515.20
Powell Industries' growth thesis remains firmly intact: record $1.6B backlog with 1.7x book-to-bill, robust LNG and data center demand, margin expansion to 28.4% gross margins, and a fortress balance sheet with $501M cash and zero debt. Revenue growth is decelerating from peak levels (4.4% vs prior double-digits), and the data center narrative faces skepticism from new analyst coverage, but the order pipeline suggests multi-year visibility that is still building.
Analyst: GLJ Research: Initiated Hold (target $450) -- 2026-03-05 + 3 more
Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (54 days)
VZ
INTACT
SELL: NONE
$50.60
The income/value thesis for VZ is intact and arguably strengthening. New CEO Dan Schulman is executing a credible turnaround with aggressive cost cuts ($5B OpEx savings, $4B CapEx reduction), strong subscriber momentum (highest net adds since 2019), and the transformative Frontier fiber acquisition. The stock trades at just 10.4x forward earnings with a 5.5% dividend yield, offering compelling risk-adjusted returns in a volatile market environment.
Analyst: Scotiabank: Upgrade to Sector Outperform (target $50.25 to $54.50) -- Mar 9 + 8 more
Next earnings: 2026-04-21 (40 days)
TSM
INTACT
SELL: WEAK
$347.09
TSMC's AI-driven growth thesis is fully intact with 30% YoY revenue growth in Jan-Feb 2026, record Q4 2025 earnings, expanding margins (62.3% gross margin), and massive $52-56B capex commitment signaling durable demand. The Nvidia Vera Rubin capacity reallocation is a net positive as it accelerates next-gen production on higher-value 3nm process. The primary risk is geopolitical (Taiwan Strait, U.S.-Iran spillover) which caused the recent 10% pullback from all-time highs — this is a persistent tail risk, not a thesis-breaking development.
Analyst: DA Davidson: Buy (target $450) -- Feb 13, 2026 + 4 more
Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (35 days)
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Data: 2026-03-12 01:56:02 (Flex Query) | Report: 2026-03-12 01:56:43 | v3.0
Data:
positions ✓
dividends ✓
benchmarks ⚠
risk ⚠
AI ✓
Warnings: 3 • Errors: 0 • Runtime: 627s
• DRY RUN -- not saved to DB
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